January 20, 2026
The latest data from the federal government mirrors the 2026 predictions for the national and Florida housing market, and the forecast can be summed up in one word.
Stability.
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau’s Jan. 13 report indicated newly built single-family homes increased 18.7 percent year over year in October 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 737,000 units. The numbers, delayed by the federal government shutdown, represent a modest 0.1 percent decline from the September 2025 numbers.
“The latest data … indicates that new single-family home sales continue to reflect a stabilizing market after a period of heightened volatility,” Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington wrote in a recent blog for the National Association of Home Builders. “While month-to-month activity shows some variability, sales remain stronger than a year ago, signaling that buyer interest in newly built homes has improved.”
Predictions of stabilization have come from several analysts who have studied the numbers for the nation and for the state of Florida. Brad O’Connor, the chief economist for Florida Realtors, points towards easing mortgage rates (around 6%), improving sales, and slowing inventory growth as signs the market is adjusting.
“We don’t see any reason to be pessimistic about the housing market’s performance in 2026,” O’Connor said. “Our baseline view is that we’ll continue to see improvement in sales numbers into the spring buying season.”
In the region, forecasts point to buyers having more time to make decisions about offers, with the mortgage rates improving sales, inventory on the rise and homebuilders continuing to offer concessions to spur sales.
"2026 is gonna be a year that housing looks to get back on track," said Jake Krimmel, a senior economist with Realtor.com.
Krimmel’s perspective is reflected in a recent report from his company. Realtor.com recently ranked the top 10 national markets where it expects housing prices to fall the most. Sarasota/Bradenton ranked second, with a predicted decline of 8.9%. St. Petersburg/Clearwater also made the list at No. 6, with an expected decline of 3.6%.
"While there is all of this chatter about prices falling, the prices aren't really falling," longtime Tampa Bay realtor Mia Annibale told FOX13. "They're normalizing. We could not have kept up that rapid rate of appreciation."
Affordability, however, will remain a barrier for some looking to purchase homes. One hope is that the increasing political focus on affordability on the state and national level will bring about positive changes.
“President Trump may declare a national housing emergency to help more Americans afford homes, and other politicians on both sides of the aisle will introduce more policies to help alleviate the housing affordability crisis,” Chen Zhao and Daryl Fairweather wrote in a report for Redfin.
However, Zhao and Fairweather noted the biggest factor in stabilizing the market may be one we can’t control: time.
“Housing costs soared much faster than earnings during the pandemic,” they wrote, “and while wages will start outpacing home prices … we expect it to take about five years for the housing market to return to a semblance of normal.”