February 24, 2026
A new report from the Tampa Bay Partnership estimates that Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Polk counties will need to add 254,700 over the next 10 years to meet the projected housing demand. The Housing Equation: A Deep Dive examines the existing gap in Tampa Bay’s housing stock and recommends policy changes. Among the findings:
- Tampa Bay faces an existing deficit of 110,000+ affordable units for households earning below 80% AMI.
- An estimated $273 million in gap funding could unlock $663 million in additional investment across projects currently in the pipeline, generating more than $1 billion in total economic impact for the region.
- One-third of households are cost-burdened, and rents have surged 48% in five years.
The need to increase housing may be the most surprising estimate, however, particularly when you consider that Tampa Bay’s stock has risen over the last two years.
Despite that increase, the market remains at a deficit for affordable housing, and that deficit adversely impacts the region’s overall economy. The report noted that Tampa Bay’s ability to attract high-paying jobs and compete with like-sized metropolitan areas demands a range of housing options, not just housing for wealthy earners.
“Employers in key sectors have indicated that the availability of housing for new employees is a challenge for recruitment,” said Caitlin Johnson, Senior Vice President at SB Friedman Development Advisors during an online seminar hosted by the Partnership. “While many employers emphasize the need for housing for households earning up to 80-120% (of AMI) within a given industry, jobs can vary across AMI levels.
“Even in economic clusters with an average wage above the Area Median Income, they may still need lower-wage jobs. So therefore, housing affordability at all levels is important in attracting and retaining those target industries.”
Yet housing affordability remains a negative issue for Tampa Bay. Household growth has outpaced the construction of new units since 2018. As a result, the region finds itself with a unit shortfall of more than 80,000 for households earning less than the Area Median Income.
The Partnership’s State of the Region Report, which came out in February 2026, estimated 440,000 Tampa Bay households are living on less than $18,000 a year. Additionally, United Way Suncoast’s ALICE Report has 46 percent of households in the region living paycheck to paycheck and standing just one unexpected expense away from dire circumstances.
Increasing affordable housing and overall housing could help. But Johnson said meeting the region’s future housing needs won’t be about building more units. It’ll need to create the right mix of housing types, sizes at the right price points in the places where people work and age.
“Growth is really being driven by changing household formation patterns,” Johnson said. “This includes smaller households, multi-generational households, and an aging population. That means the region needs a much more diverse housing stock than what was historically built.
“Looking ahead, more than 70 percent of new demand is for multi-family and single-family attached housing. To meet the anticipated demand, the region needs to increase its rate of multi-family housing. At the same time, we’re seeing a growing need for smaller, more accessible units for seniors who would like to downsize. We also see a need for more rental options near jobs and services.”
Luxury home building can also help. Johnson added that an increase in higher-end housing can relieve pressure by giving higher-income homeowners more options which then reduces competition for older affordable units. Still, the data shows the greatest shortage is for renters at 60% below the AMI.
There are many existing programs addressing the affordability issue, but this report calls for a collaborative effort involving the public sector, employers, and nonprofits. It’s recommending a regional housing action plan to build consensus and momentum around housing affordability.
“This is going to be a team sport for our entire region,” Tampa Bay Partnership CEO Bemetra Simmons said. “Everyone is going to have a role to play to help us solve this.”